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Nudge [Jan. 26th, 2016|03:13 pm]
De Horror Vacui
Nudge, Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein:

This book is scary. Not because Thaler and Sunstein are scary, but the general idea behind a "nudge:" government producing outcomes through subliminal actions. Thaler and Sunstein want to produce government actions in accord with what they call Libertarian Paternalism, that is they want government the structure things so that you'll make the choices you'd make if you were choosing what is best for you.* It's libertarian because you still make the choice, its paternalistic because they get to choose the structure in which you make those choices. And even though when Thaler and Sunstein describe their program in the first part of the book it sounds scary, when they discussed specific ideas later on, everything seemed quite reasonable.

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Did I say it was creepy?

If I thought that the people who would be structuring choices were just like Thaler and Sunstein I wouldn’t mind too much – because they do come across as thoughtful and benevolent, I rather doubt that the average government bureaucrat would strike me the same way. We see more than enough abuse of regulatory power right now, let alone bad laws, and both regulation and legislation are comparatively visible (but not really very visible – do you know how commercial fishing licenses and peanut permits are doled out? they affect how much you pay for your peanut butter and tuna sandwiches). The old jaw about libertarians comes to mind, “if everyone were like Thaler and Sunstein, then I could trust the government to nudge me.”

But they aren’t.

So I can’t.

* But, they say, these are the choices you'd make if you were making the choices with full information and without any sort of time pressure.
** I compensate in supermarkets and clothing stores by shopping like a guy. I know what I want (usually with a list), I know where it is, and I just get that stuff and get out.

Other Books, 2016Collapse )
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Final List, 2015 [Jan. 6th, 2016|08:49 am]
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Found one book when I got back that I'd read and forgot to put on the list; I have the nagging feeling that I've already forgotten a book that I finished in the last week, but I'm not completely sure. I have definitely finished two. That means I could have made 50 if I stretched after the last post, but Y. probably wouldn't have been happy with me.

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Expert Political Judgment [Dec. 29th, 2015|12:08 am]
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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Philip E. Tetlock:

There are some ideas that are too good to ignore. And this one is it. Tetlock, and I assume whoever he was working with, had the bright idea to check up on those experts in political and economic ideas whose divinations Those Who Rule consult before they act -- to invade a country or design a tax credit or some other good that is evil or evil that is good. They had these experts answer many different questions over many years based on what sort of things could possibly change in a reasonable amount of time (and all questions were time-boxed: e.g., "Will Leonid Brezhnev release a new country and western album in 1981?"). These were then run through statistical analyses.

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A few years ago, I was approached to do a study like this one (I don't remember who was in charge), but I dropped out after a few months. The main reason is because the questions were so far out of my expertise. I'd fill out these questionnaires and constantly have these answers like "I kind of think Idi Amin's next release will top Benito Mussolini's record sales record, but there's still a chance that he won't make it past Fidel Castro's 2nd place" and then have to tell the people in charge of the study that "I'm not terribly qualified to make judgments about despotic rock music" and "I'm only 20% sure in the prediction." Obviously, the questions weren't quite that detailed, but the extra should give you a feeling for what I'm doing.

That makes me wonder a little about the drop out rate for Tetlock's previous studies and how it affects his evidence, especially about his foxes.

However, I think that the basic results of this book are wonderful:

(1) The best prognosticators are experts that are least sure of themselves.
(2) The best prognosticators are no better than flipping a coin.
(3) A linear extrapolation is better than flipping a coin.
(4) The worst expert prognosticator is the one who is the most sure of himself.
(5) The prognosticator who is most likely to be listened to by others is the one who is most sure of himself.
(6) The worst expert prognosticator is better than a very, very smart amateur.

We are already well past the point when the machines should be in charge. If nothing else, a random number generator is cheaper to run than the government.

And it's a lot smarter.

* Interestingly, The Hedgehog, the Fox, and the Magister's Pox was the last book I bought by Gould, and the first one I couldn't get through because it was so bad. After reading this book, I tried again, with no luck -- even on a transpacific flight.

Other Books, 2015Collapse )

I could possibly get three more (two almost certain), unless I brought a lightweight like "Nudge" with me to Houston or run off to the used book store and find a nice, old novel that reads well (current novel: too much description and talk, not enough plot). That means no chance of hitting fifty. Another year within 1 or 2.

What happened to the days when I could read three novels in a weekend?
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The Agricultural Revolution in Prehisory [Dec. 7th, 2015|01:47 pm]
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The Agricultural Revolution in Prehistory: Why Did Foragers become Farmers? Graeme Barker

This book is the winner in this year's very slow read contest. I've been reading it more or less from the beginning of the semester, and I only finished it a few weeks ago. So, 2 1/2 to 3 months. This sometimes happens with history and archaeology books because there is so much information to sort through to get to the arguments. And that is exactly why this book took so long to read: it goes through each continent and each region and the evidence for the development of agriculture there.

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All in all, despite the small print and the unavoidable repetition, this was a very nice book to read and should be useful to me in the future if my future plans pan out in the future. And next time I visit Costa Rica, I'll be able to contribute to the conversations about why their beef is so bad.

Other Books, 2015:Collapse )
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Getting Started with Dwarf Fortress [Dec. 2nd, 2015|02:11 pm]
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Getting Started with Dwarf Fortress, Peter Tyson:

I've been dicking around with Dwarf Fortress for several years now, off and on, and while searching for the Bay12 website some time ago one of the pictures that showed up was the cover to Peter Tyson's Getting Started with Dwarf Fortress: learn to play the most complex game ever made. I said to myself, "Well, isn't that nice. Someone self-published a book on Dwarf Fortress." Then, I noticed the O'Reilly logo on the bottom. O'Reilly is one of the two companies that I go to to get computer programming books -- the company I go to if I want to buy an advanced book on a programming language and the company whose books I steal most from in my Video Game Physics course.

So, I had to see what this book was like.

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The book is a little tongue in cheek, but it is an interesting tutorial for getting started in the game. Since the Adamses just released a new version of the game yesterday, I think maybe I'll use it with the new version to see how difficult it is to use it. I doubt there's much of a difference in the initial stages, which probably won't depend on the random poetry generator or the in-game alternate histories.

Other Books, 2015:Collapse )
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Dungeon Hacks [Oct. 30th, 2015|02:11 pm]
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Dungeon H@cks, David L. Craddock:

Because I spent the summer playing with making a roguelike game, I got a little bit hooked on them. Now that the semester's in session, I haven't been able to keep up with it as much as I like -- even my programming has gone on towards next semester's video game physics course -- I've moved out of it slightly. But the plan is to get back to it later. But, I keep thinking about it and working things out on paper, I just don't have the time for the coding right now.

I hadn't wanted to write a review, but one showed up anyway.Collapse )

Craddock doesn't talk about the games, so much as talk about the process that the different games took in their development. Although some of the games were commercialized, none of them were really commercial successes. Some of them were always free and had their code distributed on the usenet, like NetHack, others released their code after some time. The book discusses the motivations and the lives of the programmers of these games.

Other Books, 2015Collapse )
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Myths and Symbols in Pagan Europe [Oct. 9th, 2015|10:43 am]
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Myths and Symbols in Pagan Europe, H.R. Ellis Davidson:

This is a book I've read before, before I went to grad school, I think. It's a survey of Germanic and Celtic myth, going over similarities and themes. It is not a good introduction to the myths: Davidson jumps from myth to myths, sometimes from tradition to tradition, sometimes even to archaeology to discuss each of the topics she wants to discuss: holy places, feasting and sacrifice, rites of battle, land-spirits and ancestors, foreknowledge and destiny, the other world, and the ruling powers.

Other Books,2015Collapse )
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A History of Warfare [Aug. 13th, 2015|05:23 pm]
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A History of Warfare, John Keegan:

This is a very interesting book, in its basic frame it is just what it says it is: a history of warfare from prehistoric times to the present day. It is structured in four parts: stone, flesh, iron and fire. The first two are mainly prehistorical in nature, the second two, historical. In a deeper sense, though, it is two other things: (1) an argument against Clausewitz's dictum that war is diplomacy by other means and (2) a search for the "military horizon," the time when warfare went from being a mass of undisciplined warriors to a fully integrated soldiery of the kind Clausewitz was familiar with.

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And so the book made for a very informative read, very well written. But it loses focus at exactly the point where the themes that he had said were the point of the book and that I had been tracking were best discussed. I recommend this book, but I was somewhat dissatisfied in the end.

* He doesn't address some other issues, like archaeological spots where there is no evidence for mass violent death. But how can you? Which ones are real, and which ones are accidental?

Other Books, 2015Collapse )
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Nine Princes in Amber [May. 31st, 2015|09:13 am]
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Nine Princes in Amber, Roger Zelazny:

Possibly my favorite book (and series) as a teen was Nine Princes in Amber. I had decided to read it again a couple of years ago, but my old black set of the books was (and is) missing. So, I've been scouring the used book shops for similar copies.

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And that's when things get really visceral.

The book is still one of the best. Now, I have to search around for the others. Right after I'm done buying a whole new set, I'll find the old one, I'm sure.

Other Books, 2015Collapse )
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The Happiness Advantage [May. 8th, 2015|06:12 pm]
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The Happiness Advantage: Shawn Achor:

I may have ended up with both of these books through recommendations from the moral psychology Coursera course I took earlier this year, or I may have gotten them from watching random TED talks – I don’t know. But strangely, they go together. Not just with each other, but with Andy Hunt’s programming advice books, too.

Book ReviewCollapse )So, although I like the general ideas behind Achor’s book, and think they are good in moderation, they are only applicable in certain situations. If you’re at Harvard, using more of your time to work on your classes and ignoring your social life is bad (which Harvard students do: they have ½ of a relationship per four years at Harvard), but if you’re really handicapped in some way, shedding friends and missing poker night are probably a good idea.(*3) Similarly, if the reasons for your passion for your job align with the needs of your job, then yes, you can become better than people who work diligently at building their careers but don’t really love what they do. But if your passion has to do with something cosmetic about the job, like the need to care and the help or the respect or adulation, then I think you won’t do as well.

I meant to talk more about Ariely’s book, but this is already 2300 words, and so maybe I should give it a rest and hope that I can talk about it later. Realistically, I probably won’t. But it’s pretty good and you should read it.

Other Books, 2015:Collapse )* Except, maybe, by taking out loans. But this is trickier than it seems. If you’re already working full time, this is taken into considerations of your “need,” so you qualify for so little as far as loans are concerned that you can’t start working less. This is one of the reasons why I doubt so much of Achor’s book: if I had followed his advice in my 20s, I would never have done some of the things that allowed me to get a college degree (let alone a doctorate).

** No matter what the cheerleaders think: my sister follower a varsity catcher around the minors for a few years.

(*3) Currently, I’m doing really well with my social life. I have friends, I do things, and I’m pretty happy. Y. spends all night studying stuff for the job she’s had for 7 years. And she’s still going to have a job in two years.
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